PIANC Smart Rivers 2022

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Research on shoreline carrying capacity is of great practical significance to promote the sustainable development of shoreline. Taking into account five aspects of shoreline health, resource supply, environmental pollution, ecological service and social service, the evaluation index system of shoreline carrying capacity was systematically established. Taking the Nanjing reach of the Yangtze River as a typical case, the variation trend of shoreline carrying capacity in recent 40 years was analyzed. The Landsat satellite remote sensing images from 1984 to 2020 were collected. The classification regression tree (CART) algorithm was used to classify the land use types in the remote sensing images, and then evaluation indexes of shoreline carrying capacity were calculated. The results show that the shoreline carrying capacity of the Nanjing reach was basically stable from 1984 to 2003. With the large-scale development and utilization of the shoreline since 2003, the carrying capacity of the Nanjing reach gradually decreased and approached the warning line. Due to the implementation of restrictive measures such as "action to clear the four chaos" and “the operation of responsibility system on river/lake leaders” by Chinese government after 2018, the carrying capacity of the Nanjing reach has rebounded rapidly. With the help of Mann-Kendall (MK) mutation analysis method, the mutation point of the time series of the shoreline carrying capacity of the Nanjing reach was found to occur in 1991, 2012 and 2018. The research results can help to discover unsustainably social and economic activities, put forward the productivity layout adjustment, and guide corresponding management measures in the reach.

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