PIANC Smart Rivers 2022

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Abstract : *(250~1000 words)

Waterway transport in Brazil is notoriously associated with cargo flows in coastal and long-distance maritime navigation, beside to inland navigation sections. Of course, the country's territorial predicates, such as a vast coastline and waterway network, contribute to reinforcing this vision. The amount of extensive rives arranged in the country, sometimes, minimizes the visibility of other navigation modalities. This is the case of crossing navigation, which can be defined, by Brazilian legislation, as that which occurs transversally to the courses of rivers and canals, connecting two points on the same bank or when it occurs between two points of the same road or railroad intercepted by body of water.

The country's urbanization process, allied to the expansion of the economic frontier, which have occurred concomitantly in the last five decades, are responsible for the increase in the number of cities and urban settlements and for the increase in the country's arable area. However, in many cases, transport infrastructure did not keep pace with the process of territorial occupation.

In this sense, many highways were provided without the proper instruments for transposing watercourses. As a result, several crossing shipping companies emerged. This type of operator grows every day in view of the need to interconnect cities, rural areas and production regions. Nowadays, there are hundreds of crossing lines in operation. One of the main issues inherent to these services is the prices charged and the respective affordability.

Considering the scenario described, the present work sought to estimate modest price ranges from a sample of vehicle transport prices in crossing navigation. For this, the statistical method of Linear Regression was applied. Regression analysis is the statistical methodology for predicting values of one or more response (dependent) variable from a collection of predictor (independent) variable values. It can also be used for assessing the effects of the predictor variables on the responses.

Comparing the price charged on a particular crossing line with that resulting from the proposed model, three possible outcomes are assumed. The practiced price may be above or below the forecast range. Alternatively, it will be within the model's prediction range.

In concentrated market situations, the operator tends to maximize its gains to the detriment of low tariffs. The use of the proposed methodology may be the first step to indicate evidence of a practice harmful to competition or abuse of economic power. If the practiced price is within the model's prediction range, then it can be considered statistically similar to that practiced in the market. Otherwise, a more detailed analysis of the specific case will be necessary in order to identify possible variations in relation to the common practice of the market.

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